Iran successfully targets shipping on July 4?

“Iran has demonstrated both capability and willingness in the immediate lead-up: the June 25 Ever Lovely drone strike (attributed by U.S. government to IRGC Navy) and the June 27 tanker projectile strike in Hormuz show active kinetic targeting within days of July 4.. IRGC Navy has explicitly declared that 'approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be regarded as cooperation with the enemy and the vessel will be targeted,' framing any transit as legitimate target—this standing threat has not been revoked..”

“Most of the bull's evidentiary chain is explicitly marked UNVERIFIED in the research, including the June 27 tanker strike, the IRGC 'target any ship approaching Hormuz' quote, the Ocean Koi seizure details, and the 49-vessel redirection claim. The only clearly OBSERVED items are a U.S. statement attributing the June 25 Ever Lovely strike to Iran and a U.S. maritime advisory saying risk remains high. A high-risk advisory is not evidence of a high single-day event probability.. The bull overstates base rates by converting a handful of heterogeneous incidents over roughly two months into an 'active campaign' with meaningful July 4 odds. Even taking the research at face value, 4 incidents over ~60 days implies about a 6-7% naive daily hazard, and that is before adjusting for clustering, survivorship in reporting, and the fact that only some incidents clearly satisfy this market's strict resolution criteria (Iranian forces, commercial ship, kinetic strike or seizure, on that exact date, credible attribution)..”