Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?

“Houthi military capability remains fully intact per EU Aspides assessment (March 28, 2026): capabilities 'remain intact and substantial' and 'next phase of Houthi involvement could include renewed attacks on commercial shipping.' The group has not lost the ability to strike — only paused.. Regional escalation conditions are unusually favorable for resumption: U.S.-Israel-Iran war began February 28, 2026; Houthis resumed missile strikes on Israel March 28 and April 1, 2026; Trump threatened Iranian power plants over Hormuz. Historically Houthis synchronize maritime attacks with regional escalation cycles (Global Security Review, March 10, 2026)..”

“Capability is not probability. The bull's core claim—Houthi capabilities 'remain intact and substantial'—only establishes possibility, not likelihood within a 1.9-day window. A force can retain weapons while choosing not to use them. The much more decision-relevant fact is the long observed inactivity toward commercial shipping despite multiple prior opportunities to resume.. The strongest structural evidence points to deliberate restraint, not imminent action. By the research provided, there have been no confirmed Houthi attacks on commercial shipping since roughly September/October 2025, even through major regional escalations in late February and late March 2026. If those escalations did not trigger shipping attacks over weeks, it is weak inference to claim the next ~48 hours are unusually likely to do so..”