Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
Polymarket · 53d ago
SkippedSKIP YES · $0.14
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
18%
P(YES)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
18%
Key Factors
- Market requires IMPACT on Israeli ground territory, not just launch/interception
- IDF intercepted all recent Houthi projectiles on March 27-28
- Only ~0.8 days remain for resolution
- Historical ground impact rate per launch is very low (~2-5%)
- Active Israel-Iran war context could mean larger salvos that strain defenses
- Houthis pledged continued attacks but time window is very short
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total