Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?
Polymarket · 54d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.96
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
98%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
2%
Key Factors
- Only ~48 hours remain until market expiry
- Base rate of ~4 critical incidents/year implies ~2% chance in 2-day window
- All Cloudflare systems currently operational with no warning signs
- Resolution requires Critical classification at time of resolution, not just during incident
- Spread and liquidity make the small edge not worth trading
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total